The impact of some macroeconomic variables on foreign trade in Iraq For the period 2001-2016

Abstract

Foreign trade is one of the basic components of global economic relations, because it represents the oldest and most advanced traditional form of these relations. It also gathers the countries of the world in one international economic system. The aim of the research is to measure and analyze the effect of some macroeconomic variables in Iraq's foreign trade for the period (2001-2016) and using the self-regression model ARDL. The results showed that the exchange rate has a significant impact on the value of foreign trade. This means that the increase of one unit in the exchange rate leads to an increase in the value of foreign trade by (35.11) million dollars at a significant level of 8%, GDP in one unit and within one year will increase the value of foreign trade by about (0.54) million dollars at a significant level of 1%, and public spending is linked to the opposite relationship with foreign trade and this means that the increase in public spending leads to a decline in foreign trade by (0.151) million dollars in the increase of one unit in the value of public spending, but it is not significant, that  interest in foreign direct investment will increase the value of foreign trade by  (13.519) million dollars during the year and a significant   level of 1%.

            The study recommended the need to pay attention to foreign trade, diversify the sources of production and export in Iraq, and follow the policy of protecting national production through the imposition of customs taxes on goods imported to Iraq and support domestic production and the adoption of exchange rate policy that contributes to the increase of foreign trade and reform of the banking system in Iraq and directing public expenditure towards spending Reduce unnecessary expenditures and reduce current spending and increase the volume of foreign investment in various economic sectors, including industry, agriculture and services.