Measuring the Effect of Some Economic Variables on the Unemployment Rate in Iraq for the Period (2003-2013), Econometric Study

Abstract

     The study dealt with the problem of unemployment in Iraq through an econometric study for the period (2003-2013). The Iraqi society is suffering from unemployment as one of the economic problems, which affect the economic, social and security situation, this problem has been increasing, especially after the change in 2003.

         The study is an attempt to determine the effect of some economic variables represented by the following independent variables (inflation rate, economic growth through GDP, GDP excluding oil sector, population growth rate, government investment expenditure, domestic investment) and unemployment rate in Iraq as a dependent variable through the use of Simple regression analysis.

        The econometric study found that there is no correlation relationship between the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation in Iraq. The increase in GDP in one unit will contribute to the decrease of the unemployment rate by (0.162%), while the increase in GDP without the oil sector in one unit It will contribute to a decrease in the unemployment rate by 0.1440%. The increase in the population growth rate in one unit will contribute to the increase of the unemployment rate by (0.79990%), while increasing investment expenditure in one unit will contribute to the decrease in the unemployed rate (0.0560%) and increased local investment One unit, it will contribute to the decline in the unemployment rate (0.0740%).

        The study recommended the need to build a national center that includes information and data on employment, unemployment and the Iraqi labor market, and the operation of various sectors of the economy other than the oil sector, which is almost idle, as the agricultural sector and the industrial sector can play a greater role in eliminating unemployment, High population growth and activating the role of the private sector